降雨入渗下边坡参数序贯概率反分析及失效概率预测

SEQUENTIAL PROBABILISTIC BACK ANALYSES OF SLOPE PARAMETERS AND PREDICTION OF PROBABILITY OF FAILURE OF SLOPE UNDER RAINFALL INFILTRATION

  • 摘要: 准确预测降雨作用下边坡失效概率,是防治降雨诱发滑坡灾害的重要前提。因受地质沉积和后沉积作用,边坡土体水力参数(饱和渗透系数)及抗剪强度参数(有效黏聚力及有效内摩擦角)存在空间变异性。另外,与边坡失稳频率观测值相比,考虑土体多参数空间变异性计算的降雨入渗下边坡失效概率偏大。该文提出了一种降雨入渗下边坡参数序贯概率反分析方法,依次融合“降雨前边坡保持稳定”、“经历57 d弱降雨后边坡保持稳定”和“继续经历3 d强降雨后边坡失稳”这三重现场观测信息,对二维非饱和边坡多空间变异土体参数进行序贯概率反分析,更新土体参数不确定性估计,进而预测目标降雨作用下边坡失效概率。结果表明:融合多重现场观测信息进行概率反分析,可有效降低土体参数不确定性估计,获得更符合实际观测的土体参数概率分布,由此预测的边坡失效概率更加合理;融合的观测信息越多,则土体参数不确定性降低的程度越大。研究成果可为多雨山区滑坡灾害风险评估及防治提供参考。

     

    Abstract: Accurately predicting the probability of slope failure under rainfall is an important prerequisite for preventing rainfall-induced landslide disasters. Due to geological deposition and post-deposition, soil hydraulic parameters (i.e., saturated permeability coefficient) and shear strength parameters (i.e., effective cohesion and effective friction angle) of slopes exhibit spatial variability. In addition, the calculated probability of slope failure under rainfall infiltration considering the multi-parameter spatial variability is often larger than the observed frequency of slope instability. Thusly, an efficient approach is proposed for sequential probabilistic back analyses of multiple soil parameters of a slope under rainfall infiltration by successively integrating the field observations, i.e., the slope keeping stable before rainfall, the slope keeping stable after 57 days of weak rainfall, and the slope becoming instable after 3 continuous days of heavy rainfall. The proposed method is adopted to conduct the probabilistic back analysis of multiple spatially variable soil parameters for a two-dimensional unsaturated slope to update the estimation on the uncertainties of soil parameters. Then the probability of slope failure under target rainfall infiltration is predicted. The results indicate that the probabilistic back analysis by the fusion of multiple field observations can effectively reduce the estimation on the uncertainties of soil parameters and obtain the probability distributions of soil parameters that are more consistent with the actual observations, based on this, the predicted probability of slope failure is more reasonable. The more observations are integrated, the greater the degree of uncertainty reduction of soil parameters is. The research outcomes can provide a theoretical reference for the risk assessment and prevention of rainfall-induced landslide hazards in rainy mountainous areas.

     

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