海床波速结构非平稳随机场模拟方法及在液化概率判别中的应用

SIMULATION METHOD FOR NON-STATIONARY RANDOM FIELD OF SEABED WAVE VELOCITY STRUCTURE AND ITS APPLICATION IN LIQUEFACTION PROBABILITY DISCRIMINATION

  • 摘要: 土体剪切波速(Vs)结构的空间变异性对场地地震反应分析和液化判别的结果有重要影响。基于渤海湾实测钻孔资料,使用点估计法给出了采用幂函数描述海床Vs随深度h变化的非线性趋势时所引起的Vs的均值和标准差随h的变化,使用蒙特卡洛模拟验证了点估计法结果的准确性。结合钻孔处的实测Vs剖面,采用考虑趋势非线性的非平稳条件随机场方法对海床随机Vs-结构进行了模拟,得到了海床随机Vs-结构的系列可能分布。该方法较之忽略钻孔处实测Vs剖面约束及忽略Vsh变化的非线性趋势的随机场方法可显著降低海床随机Vs-结构模拟结果的标准差。利用随机模拟得到的研究区一系列可能的Vs-结构对土体液化概率进行了评估,发现忽略Vs-结构的空间变异性会低估土体液化的潜力。通过将模拟结果与预留的、未参与模拟的实测钻孔处土体Vs实测值和液化结果进行比较,验证了该文方法对海床Vs-结构和液化潜力预测的准确性。相关方法可为海洋工程场地地震反应分析和液化概率判别提供合理的剪切波速参考值。

     

    Abstract: The spatial variabilities of S- wave velocity (Vs) structures have a significant influence on the results of seismic site response analyses and liquefaction discrimination. Based on the borehole data in Bohai Bay, the variations of means and standard deviations of seabed Vs with depth h are developed by using the point estimation method when the power function is used to describe the nonlinear trend of the seabed Vs with h, the Monte Carlo simulation is utilized to verify the accuracy of simulated results through the point estimation method. Combined with measured Vs -profiles at the boreholes, the random seabed Vs- structures are simulated by using the non-stationary conditional random field method considering the trend nonlinearity. A series of possible distributions of the random seabed Vs -structures are obtained. This method can significantly reduce the standard deviations of the simulated random seabed Vs-structures compared with the random field method which neglects the constraint of the measured Vs-profiles at the boreholes and the nonlinear trend of Vs changing with h. A series of possible Vs- structures obtained from random simulations are employed to evaluate the probability of soil liquefaction in the study area, and it is found that ignoring the spatial variability of Vs- structures may underestimate the potential of soil liquefaction. The accuracy of the method proposed in predicting seabed Vs -structures and liquefaction potential is verified by comparing the simulation results with the measured Vs values and liquefaction results of the soil at the reserved boreholes which are not used in the simulations. The relevant methods can provide reasonable shear wave velocity reference values for the seismic response analysis and liquefaction probability discrimination of marine engineering sites.

     

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