基于GA-BP神经网络的风雹耦合所致冰雹冲击力预测

PREDICTION OF HAIL IMPACT FORCE INDUCED BY WIND-HAIL COUPLING BASED ON GA-BP NEURAL NETWORK

  • 摘要: 自然灾害统计表明,风雹对光伏结构灾害损失量呈现逐年递增趋势,国内外针对风雹耦合作用相关研究基本空白,因此有必要针对风雹耦合作用下光伏结构的抗风雹冲击力开展研究,该研究对精确预测光伏结构抗风雹冲击能力具有重要的现实意义。该文采用课题组自研的冰雹冲击模拟一体化装置进行了风雹耦合机理试验,以风速与湍流度为变量,系统研究不同粒径冰雹对光伏结构冲击力峰值规律,试验结果验证并指导建立了BP神经网络结构用于预测风雹下单颗粒冰雹冲击力,同时利用遗传算法对BP神经网络进行优化,建立了GA-BP神经网络。结果表明:冰雹冲击力峰值随着冰雹粒子直径、发射速度以及风速的增大而增大,冰雹冲击力峰值随着湍流度的增大而减小,且同样冰雹发射速度下,直径越大,冰雹冲击力受风速以及湍流度的影响越明显;相比传统BP神经网络,GA-BP神经网络的预测精度和泛化能力更强,可以更精准地预测风雹耦合作用下单颗粒冰雹冲击力峰值。

     

    Abstract: Natural disaster statistics indicate that the damage caused by wind and hail to photovoltaic structures has shown an increasing trend over the years. There is a lack of research on the wind-hail coupling effect both domestically and internationally. Therefore, it is necessary to study the impact resistance of photovoltaic structures under the wind-hail coupling effect. Such research holds a significant practical significance in accurately predicting the impact resistance of photovoltaic structures against wind and hail. In this study, an integrated device developed by the research team for simulating hail impact was used to conduct experiments on the wind-hail coupling mechanism. Wind speed and turbulence were taken as variables to systematically investigate the peak impact force of hail particles with different diameters on photovoltaic structures. The experimental results were used to validate and guide the establishment of a BP neural network structure for predicting the impact force of single hail particles under wind and hail conditions. Furthermore, a genetic algorithm was employed to optimize the BP neural network, resulting in the development of a GA-BP neural network. The results indicate that: the peak impact force of hail increases with the diameter and ejection velocity of hail particles, as well as the wind speed, while it decreases with increasing turbulence. Additionally, under the same ejection velocity, larger hail particles are more significantly affected by the wind speed and turbulence. Compared to the traditional BP neural network, the GA-BP neural network demonstrates higher prediction accuracy and generalization ability, enabling more precise prediction of the peak impact force of single hail particles under the wind-hail coupling effect.

     

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