基于贝叶斯推断的海底管道腐蚀损伤动态评估

DYNAMIC ASSESSMENT OF SUBSEA PIPELINE CORROSION DAMADGE UPON BAYESIAN INFERENCE

  • 摘要: 基于确定型或概率型腐蚀模型的管道腐蚀损伤评估往往需要大量数据样本,在役海底管道腐蚀检测难度大、费用高,导致评估过程面临数据少、分布模型选择难的问题。提出了一种小样本数据条件下海底管道腐蚀损伤动态评估方法,该方法综合了海底管道腐蚀先验知识,通过贝叶斯推断方法融入新检测数据对腐蚀模型参数进行动态更新,实现对海底管道腐蚀损伤的动态评估。以胜利油田海底管道为例,获取管道不同服役年限下腐蚀损伤实测数据,采用腐蚀损伤概率模型对方法进行验证。结果表明:该文所提方法能够在有限数据条件下实现对腐蚀模型的持续修正与更新,随着融入样本量和参数更新迭代次数的增加,模型参数的离散程度逐渐降低,且模型参数的后验分布与实际情况的吻合程度随着输入样本量的增加不断提高,模型精度也随之提高;利用该方法可在兼顾检测成本及模型精度的情况下,规划出最优的检测样本量来进行管道的腐蚀损伤评估。

     

    Abstract: Pipeline corrosion damage assessment based on deterministic or probabilistic corrosion models often requires a large dataset. In-service subsea pipeline corrosion detection is challenging and expensive, leading to limited data and difficulties in selecting distribution models during the assessment process. A dynamic assessment method for subsea pipeline corrosion damage under small sample data conditions is thusly proposed. This method integrates the prior knowledge of subsea pipeline corrosion and employs Bayesian inference to dynamically update corrosion model parameters with actual inspection data, enabling the dynamic assessment of subsea pipeline corrosion damage. Taking the Shengli Oilfield subsea pipelines as an example, actual corrosion data from different years of service are obtained and a corrosion damage probability model is developed to validate the method. The assessment results indicate that the method proposed can continuously correct and update the corrosion model with limited data. As the sample size and the number of parameter update iterations increase, the dispersion of model parameters gradually decreases. The alignment between the posterior distribution of model parameters and the actual conditions improves with an increasing input sample dimension, resulting in enhanced model accuracy. Utilizing this method allows for planning the optimal detection sample size for pipeline corrosion damage assessment, considering both detection costs and model accuracy.

     

/

返回文章
返回