考虑地震动空间相关性的区域群体建筑直接经济损失评估

DIRECT ECONOMIC LOSS ESTIMATION FOR REGIONAL PORTFOLIO BUILDINGS CONSIDERING SPATIAL CORRELATION OF GROUND MOTIONS

  • 摘要: 基于空间相关随机场的区域地震风险量化,需要对所有感兴趣地点的地震动强度进行联合分布建模,因此评估地面运动的空间相关性是在区域尺度上评估地震损失评估的第一步。区域群体建筑结构的数量、种类以及分布的随机性、复杂性对震前预测和震后评估都具有重要影响。该文提出了考虑地震动空间相关性和建筑结构空间分布不确定性的区域群体建筑概率损失评估框架,基于地统计学方法表征地震动强度参数(IMs)的空间相关性,采用“双层蒙特卡洛法”随机模拟地震动空间相关性影响场和区域群体建筑结构的空间分布,实现快速、高效和准确的区域地震损失评估。以一个50 km×50 km的区域为例,假定区域中心发生Mw7.2级地震情景,分别以不同的损失比为基础计算了考虑空间相关性与不考虑空间相关性以及区域建筑结构固定空间分布与随机空间分布情况下的地震直接经济损失,结果表明:考虑地震动空间相关性对区域地震直接经济损失的评估精度具有重要的影响,在考虑空间相关性的情况下,区域群体建筑结构直接经济损失的蒙特卡洛模拟统计结果呈对数正态分布,损失年超越概率在中、高直接经济损失处将明显大于未考虑空间相关性的损失年超越概率。

     

    Abstract: Regional seismic risk quantification based on a spatial correlation random field requires the modeling of joint distributions of ground motion intensity measures at all interested sites. Therefore, the assessment of spatial correlation of ground motion is the first step to assess seismic loss at a regional scale. The quantity, type and distribution randomness and complexity of regional portfolio buildings have an important impact on pre-earthquake prediction and post-earthquake rapid assessment. This study introduces the basic theory for spatial correlation of seismic intensity parameters (IMs) using geo-statistics and the method for randomly generating a regional spatial correlation influence field using Monte Carlo simulation. A rapid loss assessment framework considering the randomness of spatial distribution of portfolio building structures is proposed. The framework uses “double-loop Monte Carlo random simulation” to simulate the spatial correlation influence field of ground motions and the spatial distribution of regional portfolio building structures, it realizes as a kind of rapid, efficient and accurate regional modeling and loss assessment. At last, taking 50 km ×50 km area as an example and, assuming that an earthquake event with Mw=7.2 occurred in the regional center, the direct economic losses of the earthquake with and without spatial correlation, fixed spatial distribution and random spatial distribution of regional building structures are calculated upon on the basis of different loss ratios. The results show that the loss ratio has an important influence on the accuracy of the assessment of the direct economic loss of regional earthquakes. Considering the spatial correlation, the Monte Carlo simulation statistics of the direct economic loss of regional portfolio building structures show a lognormal distribution, and the annual exceedance probability of the loss obtained by using Monte Carlo random simulation of the distribution of building structures is very close to the annual exceedance probability of fixed buildings on the whole. The annual exceedance probability of loss considering the spatial correlation of the ground motion influence field will be significantly greater than that of loss without considering the spatial correlation at the middle and high direct economic losses.

     

/

返回文章
返回