基于状态树模型的给水处理厂体系震后功能评估

POST-EARTHQUAKE FUNCTIONALITY ASSESSMENT OF WATER TREATMENT PLANT SYSTEM BASED ON STATE TREE MODEL

  • 摘要: 给水处理厂体系是城市供水系统的重要组成部分,地震作用下厂区内部的水处理构筑物和建筑物等组件的破坏会导致水厂体系的震后供水能力下降。现有研究缺乏给水处理厂体系震后功能状态分析量化的模型和方法,该文提出了考虑厂内不同组件震后状态的给水处理厂体系震后供水能力评估模型。考虑净水处理工艺流程中的水处理构筑物、建筑物和连接管线的地震易损性,通过状态树模型表达不同组件之间的连接关系及其对水厂体系整体供水量的影响。采用地震易损性模型计算水厂体系中各类组件的不同破坏状态概率,通过Monte Carlo模拟抽样得到组件破坏状态,通过状态树的逻辑门判别各个组件的破坏状态对水厂体系供水量的影响。将状态树模型应用于某实例水厂体系的震后服务能力评估,验证了模型的合理性。结果表明,水厂体系的地震易损性与单个构筑物的地震易损性模型存在较大差异,不能使用构筑物的地震易损性表示水厂体系的震后功能状态,模型评估的水厂体系震后功能状态与实际震害调查报告记录吻合度较高。

     

    Abstract: The water treatment plant system is a crucial component of urban water supply systems. Seismic damage to the internal water treatment structures, buildings and other components within the plant area can significantly impact the post-earthquake water supply capacity of the system. Existing research lacks a comprehensive model and methodology for quantifying the post-earthquake functional of water treatment plant systems. This study proposes a model for assessing the post-earthquake water supply capacity of the plant, considering the post-seismic state of different components within the plant. Considering the seismic vulnerability of water treatment structures, buildings and connecting pipelines involved in the water treatment process, a state tree model is employed to represent the interconnectedness among various components and their influence on the water treatment plant. The model integrates the seismic vulnerability assessment of various components through Monte Carlo simulation, calculating the probabilities of different damage states. By utilizing logical gates within the state tree, the influence of component damage states on the water supply capacity of the plant system is determined. The proposed model is validated by assessing the post-earthquake service capacity of a realistic water treatment plant system. The results demonstrate that the seismic vulnerability of the plant system differs significantly from individual structures. Therefore, relying solely on the seismic vulnerability of individual structures cannot adequately evaluate the post-earthquake functional state of the plant system. The assessment model's findings align well with the actual seismic damage investigation reports on post-earthquake functional state of the plant system.

     

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