气候变化背景下桥梁全生命周期可持续维护策略优化

SUSTAINABLE MAINTENANCE STRATEGIE OPTIMIZATION FOR LIFE CYCLE OF BRIDGES UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS

  • 摘要: 近年来全球气候变化日趋显著,持续升高的温度和CO2浓度会加速混凝土碳化过程,给桥梁全生命周期维护管理带来严重挑战。该文首先基于时变可靠度方法,考虑气候变化和实施时间对维护效果的影响,建立了不同气候变化情景下桥梁性能退化与维护效应模型;在此基础上,通过对维护方案的维护成本、社会和环境影响进行量化分析,采用NSGA-II多目标优化算法,提出了一种具有气候适应性的桥梁全生命周期可持续维护策略优化方法;最后,结合既有桥梁分析了不同气候变化情景下的维护策略优化结果。研究表明:随着气候情景的恶化,必要性维护导致的可靠指标增量随实施时间差异显著,维护策略优化得到的Pareto前沿不断向外扩散;在SSP1-1.9、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下,结构全生命周期内最优维护策略的预防性维护活动次数由4、5增至7,首次必要性维护活动的实施时间由66.8年、63.1年提前至61.8年。该文提出的优化框架可为桥梁管理部门制定气候适应性的可持续维护策略提供理论支撑。

     

    Abstract: In recent years, global climate change is becoming more and more significant. Continuously rising temperatures and CO2 concentrations will accelerate the carbonation process of concrete, bringing serious challenges to the life-cycle maintenance management of bridges. Based on time-varying reliability method, considering the impacts of climate change and implementation time on maintenance cost, social and environmental impacts of maintenance scheme, this paper establishes a model of bridge performance degradation and maintenance effect under different climate change scenarios. Through quantitative analysis of maintenance cost, social and environmental impact of the maintenance scheme, a climate adaptive optimization method for bridge life-cycle sustainable maintenance strategy is proposed using the NSGA-II multi-objective optimization algorithm. Finally, the above framework is applied to existing bridges, and the optimization results of maintenance strategy are analyzed under different climate change scenarios. The results show that as the climate scenario deteriorates, the increase in reliability indexes caused by the necessary maintenance method varies significant over the implementation time, and the Pareto front obtained from the maintenance strategy optimization continues to spread outward. Under the scenarios of SSP1-1.9, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, the number of preventive maintenances of the optimal maintenance strategy in the life-cycle of bridge increases from 4 and 5 to 7, and the implementation time of the first necessary maintenance decreases from 66.8 and 63.1 years to 61.8 years. The proposed optimization framework can obtain reasonable maintenance time and intervals, which provides theoretical support for bridge management departments to formulate climate adaptive sustainable maintenance strategies.

     

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