考虑主余震序列作用的边坡永久位移评估模型

EMPIRICAL DISPLACEMENT ASSESSING MODELS FOR SLOPES SUBJECTED TO MAINSHOCK-AFTERSHOCK SEQUENCES

  • 摘要: 地震引起的边坡位移是评价地震作用下边坡稳定性的重要指标。目前,边坡永久位移评估模型大多只关注主震作用,而忽略了强余震的影响。为此,该文挑选出372条真实的主余震序列,基于Newmark滑块分析法计算相应的边坡永久位移。基于所得的位移数据识别最优地震强度参数(IM),并提出考虑余震作用的边坡永久位移评估模型。研究结果表明:最优标量IM是峰值地震加速度(PGA),最优矢量IM是峰值地震加速度PGA,峰值地震速度PGV;所提模型的R2系数为0.927,表明模型具有良好的预测性能;在设定主-余震情景下,余震效应是影响不同位移评估模型预测结果的最主要因素,考虑余震效应十分必要。该文所提模型弥补了现有方法未充分考虑余震效应的不足,可为主余震序列作用下的边坡滑移危险性评估提供支撑。

     

    Abstract: The earthquake-induced slope displacement is an important index for assessing the seismic stability of slope systems. In existing studies, only the displacement caused by mainshocks is considered, with the displacement caused by strong aftershocks being ignored. To address this issue, totally 372 recorded mainshock-aftershock sequences are selected in this study, which are subsequently used as input motions for the Newmark sliding-block analysis. Based on the displacement data obtained, the optimal ground-motion intensity measure (IM) is identified, and an empirical displacement assessing model incorporating the aftershock effect on slope displacements is proposed. The results reveal that peak ground acceleration (PGA) is the optimal scalar of IM, and that PGA, PGV is the optimal vector of IM. The R2 score of the empirical model developed is 0.927, indicating desirable predictive performance. For a given earthquake sequence, the aftershock effect is one of the most important factors affecting the predicted results among various empirical displacement models. It is necessary to account for the aftershock effect. The model proposed can be utilized in assessing the displacement hazard for slopes subjected to earthquake sequences.

     

/

返回文章
返回