基于多核SVR集成模型与主动学习的结构可靠性分析方法

STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY ANALYSIS METHOD BASED ON MULTI-KERNEL SVR ENSEMBLE MODEL WITH ACTIVE LEARNING

  • 摘要: 目前基于代理模型与蒙特卡洛模拟(Monte Carlo Simulation,MCS)相结合的可靠性分析方法大多依赖于Kriging模型,而基于其他代理模型的可靠性分析方法仍然较少。该文将多种不同核函数下的支持向量机回归(Support Vector Regression,SVR)模型进行集成,结合主动学习与MCS提出了一种新的结构可靠性分析方法;该方法利用四分位距(Inter Quartile Range,IQR)对多核SVR集成模型的预测值的局部不确定性进行估计,并基于IQR给出的预测不确定性值,构建主动学习函数开展SVR集成模型的自适应更新直至满足收敛条件;通过3个算例验证了所提方法的有效性与准确性,计算结果表明,该方法对多失效域、非线性、高维度问题具有较好的适用性和高效性,虽然集成模型相较于单一模型在建模成本上有所增加,但在面对高维问题时,所提方法整体计算效率与计算精度均优于基于Kriging模型的可靠性分析方法。

     

    Abstract: Most of the current reliability analysis methods based on surrogate models combined with Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) depend on the Kriging model. The reliability analysis methods based on other surrogate models are still relatively rare. One new structural reliability analysis method is proposed with active learning, MCS, and ensemble Support Vector Regression (SVR) models with different kernel functions. The method proposed utilizes the Inter Quartile Range (IQR) to estimate the local prediction uncertainty of the SVR ensemble model, based on which an active learning function is constructed to control the adaptive updating of the SVR ensemble model until convergence. The effectiveness and accuracy of the method proposed were verified against three examples. The analysis results show that the method has good applicability and high efficiency for multi-failure- domain, nonlinear, and high-dimensional problems. Although the ensemble model increases the modeling cost compared with the single model, the overall computational efficiency and accuracy are better than those of the conventional method based on Kriging model for high-dimensional problems.

     

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