基于“源体力”理论的城市抗震安全韧性评估

URBAN SEISMIC SAFETY RESILIENCE EVALUATION BASED ON "RISK SOURCE-RISK EXPOSURE-MITIGATION FORCE" THEORY

  • 摘要: 为有效实现地震灾害风险分析与城市抗震韧性评估工作的内在融合,完善和拓展城市抗震安全韧性评估理论和方法。基于“源体力”理论框架,首先通过地震危险性发生概率和承灾体易损性表达城市地震风险,从社会减灾力、设施减灾力和组织减灾力三个层面综合评价减灾力值,构建了城市抗震安全韧性评估模型;其次,采用北京市某街区多源数据分别进行了多情景地震风险计算、减灾力量化分析和抗震安全韧性评估,并通过z-score标准化将研究区域划分为高风险-高减灾力、高风险-低减灾力、低风险-高减灾力、低风险-低减灾力4种类型,更清晰地识别了城市抗震安全韧性的空间差异性;最后,以城市抗震安全韧性“源体力”理论为基础,从不断增强城市风险源多水准防灾可靠性、持续性提高城市承灾体抗灾鲁棒性和提升城市减灾力的快速可恢复性三个层面提出了未来抗震安全韧性提升优化策略。研究结果表明,本文研究思路和方法拓展了城市“源体力”理论框架的应用范畴,可为城市抗震安全韧性建设提供理论基础和科学依据。

     

    Abstract: The study of urban seismic resilience combines the risk analysis of earthquake disaster with the evaluation of urban seismic resilience, perfecting and expanding the theory and method of urban seismic safety resilience. Based on the theory of "risk source-risk exposure-mitigation factor", this paper adopts the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and vulnerability for hazard bearing body as seismic risk assessment methods, introduces mitigation factor as an important evaluation index, constructs an evaluation model of urban seismic safety and resilience, and studies the seismic resilience level of some blocks in Beijing. The multi-source data of some blocks are used to calculate the multi-scenario earthquake risk and analyze the mitigation factor and evaluate the seismic safety resilience. Through z-score standardization, the study area is divided into four types: high risk-high mitigation factor, high risk-low mitigation factor, low risk-high mitigation factor, and low risk-low mitigation factor, with the differences between seismic resilience of the blocks being more clearly identified. The research results provide scientific basis for targeted urban earthquake prevention and disaster reduction, and have certain reference value for urban earthquake prevention and disaster reduction and resilient city construction.

     

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