基于多变量重现期的广义条件强度参数理论研究

THEORETICAL STUDY ON GENERALIZED CONDITIONAL INTENSITY MEASURES BASED ON MULTIVARIATE RETURN PERIODS

  • 摘要: 地震重现期是地震工程领域重要概念之一,已被广泛应用于结构抗震设计和评估中,但目前基于多变量重现期的广义条件强度参数和向量型广义条件强度参数研究还较为缺乏。本文概括了三种多变量地震重现期计算方法,总结了广义条件强度参数和向量型广义条件强度参数理论,针对算例场地,进行了标量型概率地震危险性分析和分解计算,构建了广义强度参数条件分布,依据标量型危险性分析和分解得到基于Kendall函数的向量型分解结果,构建了向量型广义强度参数条件分布,计算了多个强度参数联合多变量地震重现期。研究发现:对于GCIM和VGCIM,基于同时超越和基于任意超越的多变量地震重现期要么过于严格,要么过于宽松,而基于Kendall函数的多变量地震重现期介于上述极端情况之间,比其他两个定义更加稳定;当条件IM分解结果与GCIM和VGCIM计算的其他强度参数分解结果相似时,基于Kendall函数的多变量地震重现期接近设定多变量地震重现期;VGCIM中地震动强度参数的MRP比GCIM中地震动强度参数的MRP更接近设定多变量地震重现期。

     

    Abstract: Seismic return period is one of the important concepts in the field of earthquake engineering, which has been widely used in the seismic design and assessment of structures, but there is a lack of research on the generalized conditional intensity measures and vector generalized conditional intensity measures based on multivariate return period. In this paper, three multivariate seismic return period calculation methods were summarized, the theories of generalized conditional intensity measures and vector generalized conditional intensity measures were summarized. For the example site, scalar probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and disaggregation were carried out to construct the conditional distribution of the generalized conditional intensity measures, and the results of vector disaggregation based on Kendall function were obtained based on scalar hazard analysis and disaggregation. Additionally, the conditional distribution of the vector generalized conditional intensity measures were constructed, and the joint multivariate seismic return periods of multiple intensity measures were calculated. It is found that the multivariate seismic return periods based on simultaneous exceedance and arbitrary exceedance are either too strict or too loose for GCIM and VGCIM, while the multivariate seismic return period based on the Kendall function is between the above extremes and more stable than the other two definitions; when the conditional IM disaggregation results are similar to the disaggregation of the other intensity measures calculated by GCIM and VGCIM, the multivariate seismic return period based on the Kendall function is close to the set multivariate seismic return period; the MRP of the ground motion intensity measures in the VGCIM is closer to the set multivariate seismic return period than the MRP of the ground motion intensity measures in the GCIM.

     

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