融合结构抗火设计的建筑火灾蔓延多米诺效应风险评估方法研究

RESEARCH ON DOMINO RISK ASSESSMENT METHOD FOR BUILDING FIRE SPREAD INCORPORATING FIRE PROTECTION DESIGN

  • 摘要: 建筑火灾蔓延是一种高影响、低频率事件,可能导致比初始火灾事故更严重的后果,甚至造成结构倒塌。本文基于贝叶斯网络,融合结构抗火设计,提出了一种建筑火灾蔓延多米诺效应风险评估方法将多米诺效应理论应用于建筑火灾蔓延过程分析,提出不期望事件扩展概率计算方法;以房间为节点,蔓延路径为有向边,扩展概率为条件概率分布表输入参数,考虑房间火灾与多米诺事故层级的逻辑关系,构建贝叶斯网络;基于蒙特卡洛法评估多米诺事故下的结构易损性;通过先验、后验概率评估蔓延风险及结构损伤风险。通过建筑火灾蔓延试验验证方法有效性,并说明该方法在最典型、最不利火灾场景构建与设计方案优选中的应用。结果表明:采用贝叶斯网络可有效评估建筑火灾蔓延多米诺风险,为结构抗火设计提供分析方法与方案比选依据。

     

    Abstract: Building fire spread is a “high-impact, low-frequency” event that may lead to consequences more severe than the initial fire incident, including potential structural collapse. A domino risk assessment method for building fire spread incorporating structural fire design is proposed based on the Bayesian network. The domino effect theory is applied to analyzing the building fire spread process, and an escalation probability calculation method is introduced. Using rooms as nodes and fire spread paths as directed edges, with escalation probabilities as inputs for conditional probability tables, considering the logical relationships between room fires and domino accident levels, a Bayesian network is constructed. Structural vulnerability under domino accident scenarios is evaluated using the Monte Carlo method. Fire spread risk and structural damage risk are assessed through prior and posterior probability analyses. The validity of the method is verified via building fire spread experiments, and its application to constructing the most typical and worst-case fire scenarios, as well as to optimizing design schemes, is demonstrated. The results show that the building fire spread domino risk can be evaluated by the Bayesian network, providing an analytical method and comparative basis for the fire-resistant design of structures.

     

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