基于BN模型的混凝土氯离子浓度分布动态预测

DYNAMIC PREDICTION OF CHLORIDE CONCENTRATION DISTRIBUTION IN CONCRETE BASED ON BAYESIAN NETWORK MODEL

  • 摘要: 钢筋混凝土(RC)中氯离子扩散被广泛认为是钢筋腐蚀的主要因素之一,并且具有不确定性和随机性,因此,准确预测氯离子浓度分布对于混凝土结构耐久性与安全性评估、维养决策优化至关重要。本文基于Fick第二扩散定律的氯离子扩散传统随机模型,通过引入方差未知的误差项,构建了一个新的模拟氯离子非线性动态扩散过程的随机模型;在此基础上,采用Bayes公式和马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛(MCMC)算法,通过不断引入新实测数据,建立了基于Bayesian网络(BN)的概率模型参数后验分布的序贯更新方法;把更新后的估计参数代入概率模型,实现了混凝土中氯离子平均浓度时空分布的动态预测。通过多根干湿循环条件下RC梁氯离子扩散试验的浓度实测数据,阐明了序贯Bayesian更新方法在改进氯离浓度动态预测中的应用过程。结果显示:与解析模型和传统随机模型相比,基于BN的氯离子浓度分布动态预测模型,因为考虑了模型参数的先验信息,并不断利用新测试数据实时修正模型,在一定程度上能够有效降低模型参数的不确性,预测结果展示了较好的客观性、准确性和可靠性,模型更适用于长期动态预测。

     

    Abstract: Chloride ion diffusion in reinforced concrete (RC) is widely recognized as one of the primary causes of reinforcement corrosion and exhibits significant uncertainty and randomness. Accurate prediction of chloride concentration profiles is therefore essential for durability assessment, structural safety evaluation, and maintenance decision-making of concrete structures. Based on the traditional stochastic chloride diffusion model derived from Fick’s second law, a modified stochastic model incorporating an error term with unknown variance was established to characterize the nonlinear dynamic diffusion process of chloride ions. Subsequently, a sequential Bayesian updating method for posterior parameter distributions was developed within a Bayesian network (BN) framework using Bayes’ theorem and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, in which the newly acquired experimental data were continuously incorporated to update the model parameters. The updated parameters were then substituted into the probabilistic model to realize dynamic prediction of the spatiotemporal distribution of mean chloride concentration in concrete. The chloride concentration data obtained from RC beam tests subjected to drying–wetting cycles were employed to illustrate the application of the proposed sequential Bayesian updating approach for dynamic chloride concentration prediction. The results show that, compared with analytical models and conventional stochastic models, the proposed BN-based dynamic prediction model effectively reduces parameter uncertainty by incorporating prior information and continuously correcting model parameters using the newly measured data. Consequently, the predicted chloride concentration profiles exhibit improved objectivity, accuracy and reliability, indicating that the proposed model is more suitable for long-term dynamic prediction of chloride ion diffusion in concrete structures.

     

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