基于动态贝叶斯网络的给水处理厂体系抗震韧性评估

SEISMIC RESILIENCE ASSESSMENT OF WATER SUPPLY TREATMENT PLANT SYSTEMS BASED ON DYNAMIC BAYESIAN NETWORKS

  • 摘要: 针对给水处理厂体系震后功能恢复过程具有多组件耦合、时序演化和不确定性传播特征的问题,提出一种基于动态贝叶斯网络(dynamic bayesian network, DBN)的抗震韧性评估方法。首先,构建给水处理厂状态树模型,并依据逻辑门映射规则将其转化为动态贝叶斯网络结构;其次,以组件地震易损性模型获得不同PGA下构筑物、建筑物和连接管线的损伤状态概率,并结合震后状态转移概率表推演水厂体系功能恢复过程;最后,基于统一韧性评价时间计算韧性指数,并通过敏感性分析识别关键薄弱环节。以某地表水源水厂为例进行分析,结果表明:随着PGA增大,水厂体系由轻微破坏逐渐向严重破坏和毁坏状态转化,功能恢复时间显著延长,韧性指数整体呈下降趋势;沉砂池、总进水井和鼓风机房对系统功能影响较大,是影响水厂抗震韧性的关键节点。研究表明,该方法能够在统一概率框架下刻画组件损伤、功能传递和震后恢复过程的时序演化,为给水处理厂体系震前加固、震后抢修和韧性提升提供决策依据。

     

    Abstract: The post-earthquake functional recovery of water treatment plant systems is characterized by multi-component coupling, temporal evolution, and uncertainty propagation. A seismic resilience assessment method based on dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) is proposed. First, a state tree model of the plant is constructed and transformed into a DBN structure using logic gate mapping rules. Second, the damage state probabilities of structures, buildings, and connecting pipelines under different peak ground acceleration (PGA) levels are obtained from component seismic fragility models. Combined with post-earthquake state transition probability tables, the system functional recovery process is derived. Finally, the resilience index is calculated using a uniform resilience evaluation time, and then critical weak components are identified through sensitivity analysis. The method is applied to a surface water treatment plant. The results show that with increasing PGA, the system damage state gradually transitions from slight damage to severe damage and destruction, the functional recovery time is significantly prolonged, and the resilience index exhibits an overall decreasing trend. The grit chamber, main inlet well, and blower room exert significant impact on system functionality and are identified as critical nodes affecting the seismic resilience. The method can characterize the temporal evolution of component damage, functionality transfer, and post-earthquake recovery process within a unified probabilistic framework, providing a decision basis for pre-earthquake strengthening, post-earthquake emergency repair, and resilience enhancement of water treatment plant systems.

     

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