单桩承载力可靠度分析中试桩信息的应用
THE APPLICATION OF INFORMATION OF TRIAL PILES IN RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF LOAD-BEARING CAPACITY OF SINGLE PILE
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摘要: Bayes方法是统计学决策方法的基础之一,通过采样,修改先验的概率分布,从而减少了参数的不确定性。本文针对港工中实际试桩少,难以对单桩承载力作出准确统计的问题,用Bayes方法进行了计算,并考虑了主观不定性对抗力的影响,较好地解决了实际问题。Abstract: The Bayes method is one of the basis of statistical decision methods. Through sampling, a prior distribution can be modified, hence the uncertainty of a parameter can be reduced. In harbor engineering, the numbers of the actual trial piles is nuall. It is difficult to obtain the exact estimation of Load-bearing capacity parameter for a single pile. In this paper, the Bayes method is applied considering the influence of subjective uncertainty on the load-bearing capacity as result is considered. The example given in this pap3r shows that the method is very useful in practice.