THE EXTREME WIND SPEED PREDICTING MODEL OF TYPHOON BY USING MONTE-CARLO METHOD

Taking Xiamen as an example, based on the assumption of Batts wind field model and numerical simulated wind speed data of typhoon by using Monte-Carlo method, the distribution functions of extreme wind speed were analyzed and the maximum wind speeds in different return periods were predicted. The numerically simulated results of the extreme distribution functions are coincide with those of empirical distribution function. Compared with the analysis results of different extreme distribution functions, such as Gumbel distribution function, Fréchet distribution function, reverse Weibull distribution function, and Generalized Parato distribution function, the reverse Weibull distribution function provides the most reasonable prediction of maximum wind speed in 100 years of return period, while the predicting values of Fréchet distribution function are significantly different from the historical data. In addition, the extreme wind speeds of different return periods in Xiamen were estimated.